Overview
The 2025 Indian monsoon season has been marked by extraordinary unpredictability—early onsets, rapid advances, unexpected pauses, and stark regional anomalies. While forecasts originally pointed to an “above normal” monsoon, the lived experience for farmers and states varied greatly, with pockets of deluge, drought, and significant agricultural distress.
As per monsoon behaviour this year, the southwest monsoon arrived in Kerala on May 24—eight days earlier than average—then quickly covered the country by June 29, almost nine days ahead of the norm, aided by record-breaking rainfall in May12. Following its quick start, the monsoon system paused for weeks over Maharashtra and parts of North Bengal, leading to rain deficits in multiple regions even as other parts flooded32. Central and southern states often saw abundant rainfall, whereas northwest and parts of the east (notably Bihar and Odisha) suffered long dry stretches. Gujarat recorded its wettest June in a decade, while Bihar faced a rainfall deficit nearing 50%451.
In Bihar, by early July, rainfall was 50% below normal, with some districts experiencing nearly 80% shortfall. Paddy farmers could not transplant as seedlings dried in nurseries. This marks the third consecutive year of monsoon shortfall for the state4. While in Parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Jharkhand, and Ladakh also registered ≥20% rainfall deficits. Unequal rainfall distribution exposed crucial sowing windows for rice, pulses, oilseeds, and cotton56.
A late or interrupted monsoon derailed sowing calendars. Key crops like rice, maize, and soybeans lagged 30–45% behind last year’s acreage in regions hit by delayed rains7. Delayed planting left less time for crop growth, increasing the risk of both yield loss (up to 20–25% for rainfed paddy in some areas) and total crop failure if late rains failed to materialize8. Smallholders especially postponed input purchases, risking further loss if monsoon deficits continued7.
While some states suffered severe deficits, others experienced intense, short-duration downpours, causing floods and local crop losses. This led to soil erosion, waterlogging, and post-harvest spoilage, especially during the grain ripening period9101.
Inflation & Food Security
Disrupted crop cycles have contributed to food inflation, with rising prices for vegetables like onions and tomatoes due to both drought and heavy rain damage103. Over 55% of India’s net sown area is rain-fed, so even moderate monsoon variability creates ripple effects for national food security and rural incomes11.
Table: Regional Rainfall Patterns and Agricultural Effects (2025)
| Region/State | Rainfall Event | Major Crops Impacted | Impact on Sowing/Yield | Noteworthy Detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bihar | 50% deficit | Paddy | Transplant delayed, risk of loss | Some districts saw –80% rainfall |
| Maharashtra, N. Bengal | Monsoon pause | Cotton, soy, rice | Sowing delayed | Key monsoon zone disruption |
| Gujarat | Wettest June | Cotton, groundnut | Some local floods, sowing early | 288.7 mm rain—10-year record |
| Central India | Abundant June rain | Millets, oilseeds | Early sowing possible | Reservoirs filled above average |
| Parts of Rajasthan/Ladakh | >20% deficit | Pulses, grains | Sowing at risk | Potential drought stress |
Crop insurance and relief initiatives expanded in drought-hit states. Increased investments were made in irrigation infrastructure and real-time weather advisories10. Digital advisories (SMS/apps), satellite rainfall monitoring, and expansion of climate-resilient crop varieties have become central to resilience building127. Diversification, delayed sowing, and willingness to switch to short-duration or drought/flood-tolerant varieties are becoming common among progressive farmers108.
Conclusion
Erratic monsoon and rainfall deficits in India for 2025 have underscored the country’s vulnerability to both delayed and excessive rain—threatening food security, livelihoods, and economic stability. Regional disparities remain stark and without major investments in forecasting, resilient crops, and risk management, the threat is set to increase in coming years. This season is a powerful reminder that both abundance and absence of rain can trigger crisis when distribution and timing are unpredictable—a reality that will increasingly shape India’s agriculture and rural life in a warming climate1291034567813.
